On Our 'Virtual Route 99" (Special Editoin): On The Week That Was in America & The World
Our team presents a snapshot of thoughts on the World This Week:
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Next week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, will return to the White House for the first time since the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. That’s a big deal right there, or at least should be.
And the visit is a big deal, with lots of potential deals in it. The White House will host a US-Saudi Summit at the Kennedy Center and a black tie dinner. Since MBS is not formally the head of state, it’s not a “state” dinner. But it’s close.
What Trump wants
Though it hasn’t dominated headlines this week, Team Trump is still pushing hard on Gaza. One main reason is: Trump wants Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel. That is something Joe Biden pushed hard to do and failed. It would not only let Trump crow that he accomplished what his predecessor couldn’t, it would feed into the narrative that he’s bringing peace to the Middle East.
More importantly, however, Saudi-Israel normalization would potentially open the doors to US arm sales and Saudi investments in US firms, namely real estate. When Trump visited Saudi Arabia in the spring, Saudi Arabia agreed to buy $142 billion in US weapons. Before he took office in January, Trump leased his brand to two real estate projects in Saudi Arabia.
Energy is also on Trump’s mind. Saudi Arabia is, along with the US, one of the world’s largest oil producers. Its decisions on output directly affect global prices—and US inflation. Following the thumping Trump got last week in various elections, the US president has decided to focus on “affordability,” even though he claims that the entire conversation is a Democratic hoax.
Trump will likely press MBS for assurances on production stability and steady supply, while exploring Saudi investment in American energy projects. Sidebar: under Trump’s guidance, the US did not send a delegation to the UN Climate Summit in Brazil, COP 30. (There’s more on that in the links below).
To get what he wants, Trump is dangling what Riyadh has long coveted: a formal US security pact. Just like he did with Qatar recently, the pact would commit the US to Saudi Arabia’s defense. That would not be permanent. To do that, Trump would need to get a treaty passed in Congress. This would be a shortcut, through Executive Order, where there would be no Congressional oversight.
What Saudi Arabia wants
Mohammed bin Salman is the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. The son of King Salman, he rose to power in 2015 and launched Vision 2030, an ambitious plan to diversify the kingdom’s oil-based economy. He’s loosened some social restrictions while tightening political control. Today, MBS is positioning himself as a modernizer and power broker on the global stage. His arrival in Washington gives him legitimacy and full rehabilitation after Khashoggi’s murder.
For his country, he wants access to advanced American weapons, a defense guarantee, and a green light for a civilian nuclear program—to power data centers across the country. Rachel Bronson has a good breakdown on this, along with what to expect from the visit.
Ultimately, the crown prince has Vision 2030 on his mind. That’s his plan to transform Saudi Arabia’s oil-dependent economy to one that is technology and innovation based. That means courting Silicon Valley—and others. No doubt MBS is keen on making this Washington visit successful, but he’s not about to forgo his ties to Beijing, which have strengthened over the past several years. It gives him options.
This includes normalization with Israel. Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest in Gaza’s redevelopment. No doubt that will be a point of discussion, as Riyadh will want to have a say and influence on this. MBS has insisted that Riyadh would only establish diplomatic relations with Israel when Israel works towards Palestinian statehood. That’s not something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ever wanted or wants to do now.
What are the odds MBS agrees to this? My guess is low. Recognizing Israel at this moment would not go down well at home or in the region. But, hey, these guys don’t care about actual people. So, if Trump makes him an offer he can’t refuse, who knows?
What they’ll both likely get
Expect a joint communiqué heavy on adjectives—“strategic partnership,” “shared vision,” “regional stability”—and light on details. There may be a memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation, a bundle of AI and energy announcements, and a vague Saudi pledge to “continue discussions” on normalization with Israel.
Both men will declare victory. Trump will hail himself as a dealmaker; MBS will return home as a statesman. But the hard questions—about accountability, about the cost of US security guarantees, about what happens to Palestinians when normalization skips justice—will remain unanswered. —Elmira
Interruptrr aims to widen the lens and enrich foreign policy discussions. It’s opinion and perspectives by experts, who happen to be women. If you love what I do, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Elsewhere in the World.....
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On our radar...
At the end of October, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. That’s a win for Russia, which has been eager to destabilize Europe. Dodik has been pushing for Bosni’as Serb entity to secede. That would break up the country which is looking to celebrate 30 years of the Dayton Peace Accords next week. By yours truly. (Foreign Policy)
Venezuela War Watch
Here’s something I didn’t know: the USS Gerald Ford is the world’s largest aircraft carrier in the world. I learned that because it just arrived in the Caribbean. It joins a growing number of US military assets, which Venezuela Analysis says is up to 10,000 strong. Polymarket seems to think that there isn’t an imminent threat to war with Venezuela. But Venezuelans aren’t taking any chances. The country has mobilized more than 8 million volunteers to participate in a military preparedness exercise, writes Jessica Dos Santos. (Venezuela Analysis)
COP 30
The UN held its climate summit, COP 30, this week in Brazil, sans US participation. At the UN General Assembly in September, Trump called climate change a “con job.” That’s bad news for the globe, which the UN reports continues to warm. It is likely to exceed the 1.5 C target. And with AI’s expansion, the demand for energy is only growing. Sigh.
The past three UN climate summits have taken place in authoritarian states. This year it’s in Brazil, which has come back from authoritarianism and environmental collapse. That’s a reminder, write Frances Colón and Johan Hassel, that “democracy triumphs where despotism destroys. With alternative energy cheaper than ever, progressives need to use the event to show that democracies can save the planet. (El Pais)
We are watching the ideology of the far-right MAGAs smash against reality, with President Donald J. Trump and his cronies madly trying to convince voters to believe in their false world rather than the real one.
That spin has been hard at work in the past few days over the economy. Trump is clearly worried that the Supreme Court is going to find that much of his tariff war is unconstitutional, as the direction of the justices’ questioning in its November 5 hearing suggested. On Monday he claimed that the U.S. would have to pay back “in excess of $2 Trillion Dollars” if the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs unconstitutional, and that “would be a National Security catastrophe.” He blamed “Anarchists and Thugs” for putting the U.S. into a “terrible situation” by challenging his tariffs. Hours later, he increased the number to $3 Trillion—the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says the number was actually about $195 billion.
Yesterday, White House officials suggested they would never be able to release October’s jobs report or inflation numbers, blaming the Democrats. They did, however, claim that prices are “beginning to drop,” citing DoorDash, the delivery platform, as their source.
The administration has justified its violence against undocumented immigrants by insisting those they round up are violent criminals, “the worst of the worst.” That claim is increasingly exposed as a lie, and Americans are pushing back.
Melissa Sanchez, Jodi S. Cohen, T. Christian Miller, Sebastian Rotella, and Mariam Elba of ProPublica reported on the September 30 raid on an apartment complex in Chicago in which federal agents stormed the complex in a helicopter and military-style vehicles, broke into apartments, and marched individuals outside, claiming they were Tren de Aragua gang members and filming them for a video the administration circulated that portrayed them as criminals.
Government agents arrested 37 people in the raid but ultimately claimed that only two of them were gang members. The journalists spoke to one and found he had no criminal record. Federal prosecutors have not filed criminal charges against anyone arrested in the raid. Instead, the journalists observed in immigration court that government lawyers never mentioned criminal charges or gang membership. Judges simply ordered them deported or let them leave voluntarily, which would enable them to apply to return to the U.S., a sign they are not actually seen as a threat to the country.
On Tuesday, Isabela Dias of Mother Jones reported on the administration’s targeting of individuals who, until now, were protected under Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA. President Barack Obama established DACA for those brought to the U.S. as children until Congress could pass legislation to give those “Dreamers” a path to legal residence. Thanks to the program, Dreamers by the hundreds of thousands gave the U.S. government their personal information in exchange for a promise they would not be deported. But Congress never acted, and now, in its quest to reach 3,000 deportations a day, the administration is targeting the DACA recipients, whose adherence to the rules the government established makes them easy to find and target.
Yesterday, Robert Tait of The Guardian noted that Human Rights Watch and Cristosal, a group that monitors human rights in Latin America, report that the Venezuelans the Trump administration sent to the infamous CECOT terrorist prison in El Salvador endured systematic torture, including beatings and sexual violence. Only 3% of those the U.S. rendered to El Salvador had been convicted of a violent crime in the U.S.
As immigration advocate Aaron Reichlin-Melnick wrote: “We paid El Salvador to torture, abuse, and rape completely innocent Venezuelans so that [Secretary of State] Marco Rubio, [White House deputy chief of staff] Stephen Miller, and Donald Trump could claim they were tough on immigrants.”
The executive director of Cristosal, Noah Bullock, accused the administration of wanting “to demonstrate and send a message of brutality.” A White House spokesperson said:: “President Trump is committed to keeping his promises to the American people by removing dangerous criminal and terrorist illegal aliens who pose a threat to the American public.”
Today, retired Chicago broadcast journalists published a letter to people in the Chicago area saying what the federal government is doing to Chicago is “wrong.” It is “a brutal and illegal campaign against fellow Chicagoans, mainly Latinos: violent abductions, gutting families, using tear gas around children, roughing up witnesses, ramming cars and even taking a day care teacher from her school.” This “is not law enforcement,” they wrote; “it is terror.”
For the first time in twelve years, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops issued a “Special Message” yesterday. Addressing the administration’s immigration enforcement policies, the bishops said they were “saddened by…the vilification of immigrants,” “concerned about the conditions in detention centers,” “troubled by threats against the sanctity of houses of worship and…hospitals and schools,” and “grieved” over the damage the immigration raids have done to families. “We oppose the indiscriminate mass deportation of people,” they wrote. “We pray for an end to dehumanizing rhetoric and violence, whether directed at immigrants or at law enforcement.”
But the administration’s attempt to convince Americans to believe them, rather than their lyin’ eyes, doesn’t appear to be succeeding very well.
MAGA has been at least partly demoralized by the information coming out of the Epstein documents, with right-wing influencer Dinesh D’Souza, for example, defending Trump by saying: “Right now, we don’t have anyone else.” Trump media ally Stephen Bannon told supporters: “Trump’s…an imperfect instrument, but one infused by divine providence. Without him, we’d have nothing.”
Bloomberg reports that 62% of Americans they polled say the cost of everyday items has climbed over the past month and that 55% of employed Americans say they’re worried about losing their job. It also notes, as CNBC economic commenter Carl Quintanilla pointed out, that international stocks are outperforming the U.S. S&P stock index by the widest margin in 16 years. Yesterday the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey hit its lowest reading in 65 years.
Tonight, Ana Swanson, Maggie Haberman, and Tyler Pager of the New York Times reported that the administration is attempting to lower food prices by preparing exemptions to tariffs, suggesting that some members of the administration are finally facing the fact that Trump’s fantasy ideology cannot defy reality forever.
Other administration officials are still clinging to their ideology. Although Colombia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom have stopped sharing certain intelligence information with the U.S. because they consider the administration’s strikes on small boats illegal, Jennifer Jacobs and James LaPorta of CBS News reported today that senior military officials have presented Trump with options for land strikes in Venezuela.
Tonight, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted on social media: “President Trump ordered action—and the Department of War is delivering. Today, I’m announcing Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR.” “[T]his mission defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people. The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood—and we will protect it.”
It appears that the administration is considering attacking another country under the pretext of stopping drug trafficking, in an echo of nineteenth-century imperial power that mimics the territorial ambitions of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.
Political strategist Simon Rosenberg commented: “If Trump wags the dog in Venezuela, it is going to do enormous damage to his already degraded brand here in the US. Zero support for this in the public. Will be seen for what it is—[a] transparent attempt to rescue his flailing Presidency.”
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