With help from Eric Bazail-Eimil, Erica Orden and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Daniella | Email Gigi As the Iran war approaches the four-week mark, the strain it's putting on the Ukraine war a continent away is becoming increasingly evident. With the widening Gulf conflict dominating Washington’s attention, efforts to end the Ukraine war seem to be getting lost in the shuffle. Top U.S. negotiators STEVE WITKOFF and JARED KUSHNER are focused on Iran talks, while talks on a potential peace framework between Kyiv and Moscow appear to have been pushed down the priority list. According to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, the U.S. is telling Kyiv that in order to get U.S. security guarantees against Russian aggression in the future, it needs to cede the Donbas region to Russia — a demand Ukraine has repeatedly refused. And the Defense Department is considering redirecting military assistance originally meant for Ukraine to the Middle East, The Washington Post reported today. That move would divert munitions promised to Kyiv under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL agreement, through which European countries purchase American weapons for Ukraine. Asked about possible cuts to the PURL program today, NATO Chief MARK RUTTE insisted that Ukraine would still be able to get crucial weapons. “This U.S. vital equipment for Ukraine, including interceptors, is continuing to flow into Ukraine,” Rutte said. But he dodged answering how NATO would respond if the U.S. were to halt that process in favor of boosting defenses in the Middle East. The Pentagon is already struggling to increase its munitions production, pressuring American defense contractors to step up production of weapons including air defense interceptors and strike missiles as the U.S. and allies burn through defense systems at a blinding pace in the Middle East, as our own Jack Detsch reported Wednesday (for Pros!). With competing demands over U.S. weapons between Ukraine and the Gulf region, European allies have worried that the strain on PURL will give Russia a boost in the war. Changes to the PURL program would likely mean fewer Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. Patriots, which are in low supply, are also being used by the U.S. and allies in the Gulf to defend against Iranian missiles. Losing even a few of the U.S.-made Patriots to the Middle East war would affect Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian ballistic missile attacks, said MARK CANCIAN, a retired Marine colonel who dealt with defense procurement at the Office of Management and Budget between 2007 and 2015. “It's not like they're going to be defenseless,” Cancian told NatSec Daily, noting that Patriots aren’t used in defending against the endless barrage of Russian drones. “But when they see a missile coming in, they’ll have to make a decision about: ‘We'll engage this one, but we won't engage that one. This one's headed for Kyiv and this one’s headed for some small village or airfield.” A Pentagon spokesperson told NatSec Daily that the U.S. would continue working to ensure that allies have the necessary means to defend themselves, but declined to comment on specific programs. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian embassy in Washington pointed your host to a statement given by Ambassador OLGA STEFANISHYNA to the Post saying that while Kyiv was continuing to inform partners of its defense needs, it understands that the Iran war has caused unpredictability for its allies. 
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the White House on Nov. 7, 2025. | Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images | As the war with Iran continues to dominate headlines in Washington, another overseas battle is quietly capturing attention among the elite echelons of the MAGA movement: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s fight for reelection. Orbán, who has consolidated power over Hungarian politics since re-entering the prime minister’s office in 2010, is facing one of his most challenging reelection contests to date, as voters chafe at a sluggish economy, the rising cost of living and a string of scandals involving members of Orbán’s political orbit. Polling ahead of the April 12 parliamentary elections shows Orbán’s Fidesz Party consistently trailing the center-right Tisza Party, led by ex-Fidesz member and chief Orbán challenger Péter Magyar. Back in the U.S., Orbán’s lackluster poll numbers are causing heartburn among the Trump administration and its MAGA allies, who have identified Orbán — a self-proclaimed proponent of “illiberal” democracy — as a primary political ally in Europe. In recent weeks, senior members of the Trump administration have rallied to Orbán’s cause, with Trump broadcasting his “complete and total endorsement” of Orbán on social media several times and Secretary of State Marco Rubio paying a visit to Orbán in February. Vice President JD Vance is reportedly also eyeing a trip to Budapest early next month to whip up support for Orbán, though the White House has not officially confirmed the visit. The full-court press by MAGA’s heavyweights reflects Orbán’s unique strategic and ideological importance to the Trumpist right. During Trump’s first term, many MAGA-aligned operatives and intellectuals latched onto Orbán as a model of successful “New Right” governance, pointing in particular to his hardline immigration policies, his crackdown on universities and left-leaning civil society organizations, his opposition to military aid for Ukraine and his patchwork of conservative “pro-family” policies. Orbán has also amended Hungary’s constitutional and electoral laws to favor his party and has taken steps to undermine the independence of the country’s judiciary and free press. “Orbán is a hero to the nationalist movements in the West because he identifies the globalist evil [and then] acts to destroy it,” said MAGA strategist and longtime Orbán booster Steve Bannon. “That is the reason his campaign is so vital.” Orbán’s electoral fate matters for conservatives outside the U.S., too. As right-leaning nationalist parties have gained power throughout Europe, many aligned operatives and intellectuals look to Orbán as the keystone of an emerging trans-national alliance of conservative populist — or a “nationalist international,” as some have called it. The Trump administration more or less made the cultivation of that alliance a matter of formal administration policy last year when it wrote its National Security Strategy that the administration was committed to “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations” and pointing to “the growing influence of patriotic European parties” as “cause for great optimism.” For their part, Orbán and his allies have invested heavily in solidifying their alliance with Trump world, cultivating deep ties with MAGA-aligned think tanks like the Heritage Foundation. At a political rally in 2024, Orbán even boasted that “we have entered the policy-writing system of Trump’s team — we have deep involvement there.” That cozy relationship has paid policy dividends for Orbán since Trump’s return to office, with Trump recently granting Hungary, which is heavily dependent on Russia for energy, a year-long exemption from U.S. sanctions on purchasing Russian oil. Yet all the attention being lavished on Orbán’s reelection bid by the Trump administration carries distinctive political risks. Far-right parties across Europe are rushing to distance themselves from Trump, whose political brand on the continent has become increasingly toxic following his aborted takeover of Greenland and unpopular attack on Iran. Even some MAGA-aligned conservatives in the U.S. privately acknowledge that the administration’s pro-Orbán blitz could backfire by further alienating Hungarian voters who are wary of his bear-hug of Trump. Rubio’s visit in February did little to buoy Orbán’s polling numbers, for instance, and some polls even found that the prime minister lost support after the visit. Moreover, any additional intervention by the White House would come at a delicate diplomatic moment between the two countries. Orbán is currently attempting to pressure Ukraine into repairing a critical oil pipeline that was damaged during the war by blocking a $100 billion EU loan to Ukraine, a move that undercuts the Trump administration’s ongoing effort to get the EU to increase its financial aid to the embattled nation. Trump’s ambassador to the EU has said that Orbán’s block “isn’t a United States issue,” but it’s nevertheless complicating relations at a pivotal moment for both Orbán and Trump. All of which means Washington will be watching closely as Hungarians head to the polls next month. Watching particularly closely, perhaps, will be Trump’s would-be successors, Vance and Rubio, both of whom could count on having Orbán in their corner in any future sparring matches with the EU. As Vance has said of Orbán: “He’s made some smart decisions there that we could learn from in the United States.” But who wants to take lessons from a loser? |
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